Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +7.9% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -6.6% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +10.6% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -9.7% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is -12.6% vs the historical average for the same point.
ONEX.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.89% | -12.58% | 0.09% | 12.84% | -3.82% | -3.65% | 1.30% | 5.17% | -9.61% | 2.85% | ||
| 2025 | -0.64% | -4.13% | -9.88% | 1.46% | 4.36% | 10.04% | 0.64% | 4.24% | 5.10% | -1.12% | -8.77% | 1.49% |
| 2024 | 7.40% | 1.81% | 0.40% | -3.65% | -1.07% | -3.73% | 1.82% | 0.64% | -0.51% | 5.90% | 13.64% | -1.41% |
| 2023 | 5.49% | 6.09% | -13.40% | -1.09% | -1.47% | 19.03% | 10.84% | 3.09% | -4.38% | -2.52% | 18.10% | 0.81% |
| 2022 | -7.93% | -6.78% | -1.57% | -7.75% | -2.23% | -15.07% | 6.94% | -5.10% | -2.45% | 8.38% | 3.38% | -7.90% |
| 2021 | -7.18% | 5.20% | 9.71% | 5.42% | 6.62% | 2.59% | 5.77% | -7.05% | 1.29% | 3.12% | 0.64% | 6.96% |
| 2020 | -11.24% | -31.65% | 24.79% | 0.70% | -5.08% | -2.75% | 6.37% | -6.21% | -2.87% | 20.43% | 5.32% | |
| Avg | 0.01% | -3.09% | -6.62% | 4.57% | 0.44% | 0.59% | 3.51% | 1.05% | -2.40% | 1.82% | 7.91% | 0.88% |
ONEX.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
ONEX.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
ONEX.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes