Seasonality
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Seasonality
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Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 35.53% | 50.49% | -19.35% | 24.80% | 14.74% | 0.00% | -11.17% | 8.80% | 2.31% | -16.95% | ||
| 2025 | -8.33% | 18.18% | 15.38% | -15.56% | 15.79% | -2.27% | -2.33% | 0.00% | 4.76% | 25.00% | -12.73% | 58.33% |
| 2024 | -10.53% | -5.88% | 0.00% | 12.50% | 38.89% | -16.00% | -9.52% | 21.05% | -4.35% | 4.55% | 8.70% | 44.00% |
| 2023 | 25.00% | 48.00% | -16.22% | -9.68% | -10.71% | -8.00% | 13.04% | -11.54% | -17.39% | -5.26% | -5.56% | 11.76% |
| 2022 | -5.13% | 0.00% | 2.70% | 47.37% | -21.43% | -13.64% | -15.79% | 6.25% | -5.88% | -25.00% | -12.50% | -4.76% |
| 2021 | -6.82% | 2.44% | 2.38% | 2.33% | 11.36% | -8.16% | -8.89% | -2.44% | -7.50% | 16.22% | -4.65% | -4.88% |
| 2020 | -25.49% | -21.05% | 43.33% | 6.98% | -8.70% | 4.76% | -4.55% | -9.52% | 0.00% | 18.42% | -2.22% | |
| Avg | 4.95% | 12.53% | -5.17% | 15.01% | 7.95% | -8.11% | -4.27% | 2.51% | -5.37% | 2.58% | -1.39% | 17.04% |
Dec is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Dec averages +17.0% with a 50% win rate across 5 years of history.
Jun shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Jun averages -8.1% with only a 0% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +18.2% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +12.3% historically, with January alone posting a 33% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is +78.4% vs the historical average for the same point.
OM.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
OM.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
OM.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
OM.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes