Seasonality
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Seasonality
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OBE.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
Jan is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jan averages +18.4% with a 67% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -4.3% with only a 71% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +28.4% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +28.0% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is +14.4% vs the historical average for the same point.
OBE.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 16.86% | 8.94% | 23.32% | 46.60% | -22.14% | -23.06% | 29.63% | 5.78% | -7.73% | 14.84% | ||
| 2025 | -10.53% | 5.75% | 6.57% | -31.08% | 13.08% | 15.37% | 11.87% | -0.12% | 7.08% | -12.35% | 7.55% | -1.52% |
| 2024 | 2.00% | 4.91% | 16.22% | 5.64% | -11.69% | -1.82% | 0.88% | -10.36% | -18.90% | 5.19% | 1.39% | 4.37% |
| 2023 | -1.78% | 9.30% | -10.48% | 2.09% | -15.21% | 3.75% | 21.68% | 1.38% | 16.95% | 5.46% | -13.06% | -12.29% |
| 2022 | 79.46% | 15.40% | 2.69% | -4.69% | 15.91% | -18.79% | 9.86% | 8.24% | -15.99% | 24.77% | -17.76% | -11.87% |
| 2021 | 24.14% | 62.96% | 3.41% | -6.59% | 27.06% | 96.30% | -11.79% | -10.16% | 34.23% | 6.43% | -6.67% | 16.29% |
| 2020 | -9.89% | -71.95% | 26.09% | 55.17% | 26.67% | 1.75% | 0.00% | -15.52% | -16.33% | 36.59% | 55.36% | |
| Avg | 18.36% | 13.91% | -4.32% | 5.43% | 8.88% | 14.06% | 9.13% | -0.75% | 0.02% | 2.20% | 1.34% | 8.39% |
OBE.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
OBE.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes