Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Feb is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Feb averages +3.0% with a 57% win rate across 5 years of history.
Nov shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Nov averages -4.2% with only a 33% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q1 (Jan–Feb–Mar) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q1 combine for a +4.8% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +4.8% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is +18.3% vs the historical average for the same point.
NPI.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.49% | 16.79% | 7.05% | 0.34% | 0.94% | -4.76% | -2.06% | -4.68% | 9.17% | -4.61% | ||
| 2025 | -4.40% | 17.43% | -0.50% | -4.27% | 9.76% | 4.94% | 6.41% | -1.28% | 5.18% | 10.44% | -31.74% | 3.00% |
| 2024 | 3.20% | -6.63% | -3.34% | -4.60% | 11.37% | 1.37% | -1.40% | -10.23% | 13.57% | -8.87% | -3.54% | -11.37% |
| 2023 | -3.48% | -6.97% | 2.51% | -1.54% | -10.16% | -6.88% | -7.32% | 0.55% | -13.04% | -11.44% | 13.71% | 9.57% |
| 2022 | -2.73% | 9.77% | 3.38% | -6.48% | -0.80% | 0.16% | 9.82% | 7.33% | -9.81% | -1.75% | -3.63% | -2.28% |
| 2021 | 2.80% | -9.61% | 8.05% | -6.83% | -3.90% | 4.44% | 3.76% | -4.43% | -4.41% | 0.23% | -3.65% | -0.49% |
| 2020 | 0.49% | -5.51% | 6.68% | 6.95% | 7.05% | 8.31% | -0.20% | 10.55% | 7.23% | 3.52% | 2.83% | |
| Avg | 0.15% | 3.04% | 1.66% | -2.38% | 2.02% | 0.90% | 2.50% | -1.85% | 1.60% | -0.70% | -4.22% | 0.21% |
NPI.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
NPI.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
NPI.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes