Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Jan is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jan averages +15.3% with a 67% win rate across 5 years of history.
Jun shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Jun averages -14.1% with only a 0% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +31.2% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +11.8% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is -44.5% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -5.37% | -4.10% | 2.96% | -2.88% | -11.18% | -22.22% | -13.33% | 12.09% | -15.69% | -23.26% | ||
| 2025 | 33.48% | -25.08% | -5.73% | 6.54% | 7.46% | -8.57% | 11.61% | 7.20% | 45.15% | 9.00% | -1.18% | -20.05% |
| 2024 | -18.84% | 21.79% | -8.50% | -11.86% | 8.36% | -13.42% | -20.16% | 2.43% | 1.42% | -6.54% | -12.00% | 28.98% |
| 2023 | 25.97% | 13.54% | -6.23% | -21.82% | -23.11% | -0.48% | -7.97% | 8.14% | -12.62% | -3.61% | -1.73% | 1.17% |
| 2022 | 1.02% | -1.46% | -1.49% | -9.51% | -10.90% | -10.65% | -2.58% | 26.45% | -2.61% | -13.69% | -1.71% | -18.35% |
| 2021 | 55.34% | 26.25% | -5.94% | -25.00% | 10.53% | -38.48% | -9.70% | -8.23% | -11.58% | 41.97% | -3.67% | -9.47% |
| 2020 | 2.22% | -32.61% | 48.39% | -10.87% | -4.88% | 2.56% | 5.00% | 9.52% | 63.04% | 92.00% | 43.06% | |
| Avg | 15.27% | 4.74% | -8.22% | -2.31% | -4.24% | -14.10% | -5.65% | 7.58% | 1.94% | 15.03% | 11.95% | 4.22% |
NOU.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
NOU.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
NOU.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
NOU.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes