Seasonality
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Seasonality
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Oct is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Oct averages +13.1% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -14.2% with only a 0% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +16.9% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -6.4% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is -28.0% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.99% | 12.24% | -17.32% | 6.34% | -4.41% | -0.53% | 1.22% | -1.99% | -7.80% | -7.00% | ||
| 2025 | -10.91% | -7.90% | -10.28% | -7.45% | 12.38% | -7.21% | -4.31% | -9.40% | 5.33% | 10.47% | -7.68% | -1.40% |
| 2024 | 11.90% | 9.83% | -11.09% | -3.72% | -0.07% | -8.66% | 4.70% | -3.41% | -4.85% | 7.35% | 5.73% | 8.40% |
| 2023 | 9.02% | 16.49% | -1.40% | 15.57% | -4.81% | 2.63% | 26.59% | 4.55% | -12.02% | -3.02% | -1.77% | -1.00% |
| 2022 | -4.95% | 5.04% | -5.14% | -10.77% | 4.73% | -16.04% | 1.20% | 6.14% | -12.65% | 28.96% | 6.83% | -0.06% |
| 2021 | -5.06% | 29.47% | -11.20% | 22.38% | -3.80% | 18.74% | -0.95% | -3.26% | 2.22% | 15.45% | -14.70% | 5.85% |
| 2020 | -14.04% | -42.76% | -0.42% | 25.36% | -3.41% | -2.00% | 11.99% | -6.77% | 19.49% | 28.57% | -6.33% | |
| Avg | 0.50% | 7.30% | -14.17% | 3.13% | 4.20% | -2.07% | 3.78% | 0.66% | -5.22% | 13.12% | 2.83% | 0.91% |
NOA.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
NOA.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
NOA.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
NOA.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes