Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Apr is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Apr averages +19.0% with a 71% win rate across 5 years of history.
Jun shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Jun averages -6.6% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +29.1% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +12.5% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 205 of the year, the current YTD return is -48.2% vs the historical average for the same point.
NGEX.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10.00% | 11.93% | -19.73% | -0.67% | 14.60% | -11.88% | -1.30% | 8.62% | -9.22% | -13.72% | ||
| 2025 | -2.68% | 7.20% | -6.72% | -7.36% | 30.19% | 1.02% | 23.08% | 8.02% | 22.75% | -11.95% | 8.62% | 3.14% |
| 2024 | 15.36% | -4.96% | 11.46% | 10.97% | 0.21% | -16.75% | 13.21% | 19.74% | 1.64% | 6.27% | 5.82% | 6.85% |
| 2023 | 4.87% | 0.93% | 26.38% | 48.54% | 6.05% | 11.56% | -3.18% | -8.13% | -12.73% | 4.98% | 18.64% | 2.29% |
| 2022 | -5.41% | 57.71% | 10.51% | 18.36% | -22.16% | -32.38% | 1.05% | 17.19% | -12.89% | 22.45% | 35.00% | -4.94% |
| 2021 | 9.62% | 14.04% | -15.38% | 9.09% | 20.00% | -5.56% | -7.35% | -3.17% | 34.43% | 35.37% | 11.71% | 49.19% |
| 2020 | -20.51% | -22.58% | 54.17% | 8.11% | 7.50% | 3.49% | 4.49% | 44.09% | -29.10% | 13.68% | -3.70% | |
| Avg | 5.29% | 9.48% | -2.29% | 19.02% | 8.14% | -6.64% | 4.14% | 6.68% | 9.72% | 4.67% | 15.58% | 8.81% |
NGEX.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
NGEX.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes
NGEX.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data