Seasonality
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Seasonality
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Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -7.27% | 53.33% | -31.15% | -12.21% | 7.73% | -28.44% | -3.77% | 46.08% | -22.23% | -9.71% | ||
| 2025 | -5.61% | -3.96% | -3.67% | 39.29% | -15.73% | 13.59% | 28.04% | 30.96% | 30.99% | -5.53% | 22.89% | -10.36% |
| 2024 | -30.71% | -2.33% | 20.90% | -1.23% | 34.75% | -11.13% | 37.58% | -13.35% | -2.45% | -13.64% | 7.07% | -6.60% |
| 2023 | 3.83% | -8.57% | 8.98% | -12.31% | -4.90% | -24.79% | 13.14% | -5.89% | -6.98% | -7.12% | 17.18% | -12.54% |
| 2022 | -3.34% | 5.85% | 8.57% | -16.82% | -11.49% | -13.26% | 1.46% | -7.05% | 12.41% | -3.53% | 23.21% | 4.39% |
| 2021 | -5.36% | -8.40% | 2.62% | 0.73% | 11.59% | -19.32% | -1.61% | -6.85% | -4.28% | 3.67% | -4.20% | 0.12% |
| 2020 | -11.76% | -2.54% | 50.48% | -15.56% | -5.61% | -1.61% | 13.06% | 14.51% | -12.93% | -5.87% | -5.23% | |
| Avg | -8.08% | 3.45% | 0.53% | 6.85% | 0.91% | -12.71% | 10.46% | 8.14% | 3.14% | -6.51% | 10.05% | -5.04% |
Jul is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jul averages +10.5% with a 57% win rate across 5 years of history.
Jun shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Jun averages -12.7% with only a 14% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q3 (Jul–Aug–Sep) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q3 combine for a +21.7% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -4.1% historically, with January alone posting a 17% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 205 of the year, the current YTD return is -31.6% vs the historical average for the same point.
NG.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
NG.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
NG.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
NG.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes