Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
May is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
May averages +12.8% with a 86% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -8.1% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +19.4% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -9.5% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is +43.0% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.57% | 3.08% | 12.73% | 13.22% | 6.62% | 2.67% | 5.88% | -7.81% | 5.63% | 1.79% | ||
| 2025 | -14.14% | -3.49% | 1.98% | -1.94% | 34.31% | 15.79% | 5.88% | -3.46% | -20.01% | -2.78% | -4.11% | 12.87% |
| 2024 | -12.93% | 1.68% | 6.19% | -12.20% | 36.99% | 2.33% | 8.27% | 12.59% | -6.37% | -12.33% | -7.63% | -4.37% |
| 2023 | 13.55% | -15.54% | -9.86% | -3.89% | 12.14% | 28.75% | -5.43% | 14.35% | 4.62% | 0.31% | 0.00% | 5.63% |
| 2022 | -5.73% | -0.73% | -15.66% | -26.04% | 2.63% | 11.11% | 2.99% | -4.28% | -7.66% | -27.51% | 13.07% | -4.32% |
| 2021 | 16.89% | 4.40% | -4.06% | -1.47% | -5.59% | 9.04% | -3.83% | 12.29% | -20.94% | 5.20% | -17.86% | -0.60% |
| 2020 | -3.85% | -48.14% | 5.71% | 2.58% | 3.27% | -9.97% | 17.75% | -4.99% | -8.88% | 30.09% | 23.84% | |
| Avg | 0.70% | -2.07% | -8.12% | -3.80% | 12.81% | 10.42% | 0.54% | 5.92% | -7.10% | -7.67% | 2.26% | 5.51% |
NFI.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
NFI.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
NFI.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
NFI.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes