Seasonality
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Seasonality
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May is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
May averages +17.6% with a 50% win rate across 5 years of history.
Jun shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Jun averages -10.2% with only a 17% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +19.4% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -6.8% historically, with January alone posting a 0% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is -62.8% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -8.13% | 1.61% | -31.40% | 4.62% | 2.94% | -21.79% | -13.24% | 36.84% | -10.00% | -5.98% | ||
| 2025 | -6.18% | 9.88% | -35.21% | -12.14% | 44.08% | -10.96% | 7.69% | 23.81% | 27.31% | -11.78% | 13.36% | 22.66% |
| 2024 | -7.71% | -1.86% | 17.97% | -1.00% | -4.25% | -18.39% | -1.55% | -5.53% | -3.90% | -10.14% | -16.45% | 0.00% |
| 2023 | -3.12% | -10.98% | 42.13% | -8.23% | -1.96% | 9.65% | -4.10% | -5.54% | -6.20% | -7.68% | -2.71% | -7.16% |
| 2022 | -13.14% | -0.90% | -1.81% | 10.14% | -15.07% | -18.73% | -4.33% | -14.31% | 3.38% | 0.41% | 19.35% | -7.00% |
| 2021 | -14.25% | -1.15% | 23.19% | 58.35% | 79.79% | -0.74% | -16.07% | -14.19% | -10.87% | 24.90% | -24.20% | 23.01% |
| 2020 | 6.97% | 108.37% | -11.61% | 2.78% | ||||||||
| Avg | -8.75% | -0.57% | 2.48% | 8.62% | 17.59% | -10.16% | -5.27% | 3.51% | 0.96% | 17.35% | -3.71% | 5.72% |
NFGC.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
NFGC.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
NFGC.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
NFGC.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes