Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
May is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
May averages +17.4% with a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Nov shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Nov averages -10.2% with only a 17% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q1 (Jan–Feb–Mar) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q1 combine for a +31.5% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +31.5% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is -69.9% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.96% | -24.10% | -8.06% | 47.42% | 13.29% | -16.36% | -27.68% | 19.39% | -16.24% | -42.86% | ||
| 2025 | 12.05% | -6.45% | 86.21% | -2.47% | -8.86% | 27.78% | -41.30% | 16.67% | 34.13% | 68.05% | -6.69% | 1.89% |
| 2024 | -23.26% | -3.03% | 34.38% | -2.33% | -2.38% | 2.44% | 28.57% | -12.96% | -4.26% | 24.44% | 12.50% | 31.75% |
| 2023 | -6.67% | 7.14% | 10.00% | -15.15% | 10.71% | -3.23% | 30.00% | -7.69% | 22.22% | 2.27% | 0.00% | -4.44% |
| 2022 | -7.32% | 13.16% | 20.93% | -15.38% | -6.82% | -21.95% | 25.00% | -7.50% | -8.11% | -2.94% | 0.00% | -9.09% |
| 2021 | 78.05% | 41.10% | -21.36% | -11.11% | -6.94% | -10.45% | -10.00% | -7.41% | 14.00% | -5.26% | -7.41% | -18.00% |
| 2020 | 32.14% | -27.03% | 48.15% | 122.50% | 8.99% | 10.82% | -35.81% | -5.80% | -8.46% | -59.66% | -14.58% | |
| Avg | 9.30% | 8.57% | 13.58% | 7.02% | 17.36% | -1.83% | 2.20% | -5.05% | 5.14% | 13.02% | -10.21% | -2.08% |
NDM.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
NDM.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
NDM.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
NDM.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes