Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +4.9% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -2.6% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +8.4% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +1.9% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is +7.7% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -6.00% | 17.33% | -4.78% | 13.90% | -1.80% | 11.88% | 1.27% | -6.21% | -3.90% | 0.91% | ||
| 2025 | -1.56% | -6.65% | -0.41% | 1.94% | 11.55% | 4.92% | 2.57% | 0.16% | 3.21% | 6.00% | 7.82% | 2.89% |
| 2024 | 1.81% | 3.01% | 7.67% | -2.16% | 5.38% | -5.88% | 6.42% | 6.94% | 4.34% | 3.96% | 4.45% | -4.71% |
| 2023 | 9.56% | 0.27% | -2.54% | 4.51% | -3.67% | 2.50% | 4.64% | -8.82% | -3.12% | -4.44% | 4.29% | 13.52% |
| 2022 | 5.45% | -0.07% | -4.86% | -6.38% | 8.20% | -12.02% | 6.37% | -3.29% | 0.69% | 7.14% | 3.42% | -3.90% |
| 2021 | 0.32% | 11.53% | 7.37% | 4.67% | 6.32% | -1.61% | 2.93% | 4.87% | -2.14% | 5.32% | -3.11% | -1.97% |
| 2020 | -4.98% | -21.01% | 3.22% | 6.80% | 3.79% | 2.80% | 13.38% | -6.76% | -3.33% | 12.51% | 0.58% | |
| Avg | 1.60% | 2.92% | -2.65% | 2.82% | 4.68% | 0.51% | 3.86% | 1.00% | -1.10% | 2.44% | 4.90% | 1.07% |
NA.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
NA.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
NA.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
NA.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes