Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 19.34% | 5.93% | 20.89% | 7.23% | -8.24% | -19.41% | 18.93% | 4.68% | 2.65% | 6.03% | ||
| 2025 | 5.51% | -16.00% | -20.34% | -14.39% | 3.94% | 0.94% | 2.73% | 5.31% | 13.96% | -0.23% | -8.97% | 8.85% |
| 2024 | -4.88% | 1.81% | -0.11% | 9.19% | 10.91% | -9.32% | 1.62% | -6.21% | -10.79% | -2.47% | 20.44% | 9.87% |
| 2023 | 22.86% | 9.29% | -8.27% | -3.56% | -8.52% | -0.89% | 8.57% | -3.25% | 6.94% | -6.45% | 1.15% | 8.68% |
| 2022 | 15.57% | 14.11% | 3.56% | -5.54% | -2.92% | -21.08% | -3.11% | -0.36% | -6.85% | 8.07% | 10.60% | -2.07% |
| 2021 | -27.58% | 15.82% | -5.40% | -3.21% | -4.41% | -4.12% | 2.31% | 9.99% | 26.64% | -5.02% | -7.95% | -1.63% |
| 2020 | -9.95% | -54.60% | 29.19% | 0.81% | 10.02% | 1.31% | 17.20% | 11.80% | 21.65% | 37.62% | 7.69% | |
| Avg | 5.14% | 3.00% | -9.18% | 2.70% | -1.21% | -6.27% | 4.62% | 3.91% | 6.33% | 2.59% | 8.82% | 5.23% |
MX.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
MX.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +8.8% with a 67% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -9.2% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +16.6% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -1.0% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is +69.1% vs the historical average for the same point.
MX.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes
MX.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data