Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +9.7% with a 67% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -8.1% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +10.9% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -11.9% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is -17.9% vs the historical average for the same point.
MTY.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 11.25% | -1.53% | -7.03% | 5.46% | -2.10% | -4.52% | -8.89% | 2.80% | -8.99% | 0.41% | ||
| 2025 | 10.27% | -11.23% | -7.69% | 5.57% | -0.51% | -0.75% | -9.15% | 0.58% | 0.03% | -12.13% | 12.91% | 0.74% |
| 2024 | 1.91% | -11.89% | 1.25% | -3.38% | -10.41% | 2.14% | 1.38% | -4.96% | 7.55% | -3.33% | 7.39% | -4.15% |
| 2023 | 20.61% | -6.10% | -5.68% | -3.16% | -1.89% | 5.45% | 10.79% | -1.15% | -12.24% | -10.07% | -0.83% | 9.73% |
| 2022 | -10.18% | -9.72% | 6.57% | -4.70% | 2.71% | -3.52% | 12.68% | 2.05% | -2.91% | -3.14% | 11.34% | -6.82% |
| 2021 | -11.61% | -1.02% | 13.71% | -10.32% | 16.92% | -9.73% | 24.92% | 1.07% | -6.94% | -5.38% | -8.50% | 14.66% |
| 2020 | -11.26% | -57.98% | 11.60% | 3.08% | -1.82% | 18.73% | 20.42% | -4.91% | 14.66% | 36.14% | 12.20% | |
| Avg | 3.71% | -7.53% | -8.12% | 0.15% | 1.11% | -1.82% | 7.21% | 2.97% | -4.06% | -3.23% | 9.74% | 4.39% |
MTY.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
MTY.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
MTY.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes