Seasonality
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Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +3.1% with a 67% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -4.2% with only a 57% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +2.0% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +0.3% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is -21.8% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.50% | 3.04% | -10.05% | 0.69% | 0.69% | 0.09% | -3.17% | -2.00% | -6.96% | -1.91% | ||
| 2025 | -1.50% | -0.69% | 4.65% | -3.38% | 9.59% | 0.40% | -0.48% | 5.05% | -3.94% | -3.73% | -1.11% | 1.67% |
| 2024 | 2.92% | 4.43% | 1.67% | -4.32% | 1.00% | 1.65% | 7.95% | 9.80% | 6.10% | -4.87% | 2.04% | -7.35% |
| 2023 | 12.41% | 0.88% | -4.33% | -1.89% | -3.01% | 2.87% | -2.43% | -3.79% | -5.02% | -11.26% | 3.76% | 9.46% |
| 2022 | -0.72% | 9.01% | 3.29% | -5.63% | -3.26% | -7.59% | 3.78% | -1.02% | -7.78% | 3.96% | 2.95% | -0.30% |
| 2021 | -5.79% | 0.19% | 4.61% | 1.21% | 6.12% | 1.56% | 5.83% | 1.34% | -4.20% | 8.13% | -5.45% | 2.35% |
| 2020 | 0.08% | -29.35% | 10.98% | -3.19% | 2.65% | 7.27% | -2.78% | -3.60% | -4.37% | 16.70% | -0.33% | |
| Avg | 2.14% | 2.42% | -4.21% | -0.33% | 1.14% | 0.23% | 2.68% | 0.94% | -3.63% | -2.02% | 3.15% | 0.92% |
MRG-UN.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
MRG-UN.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
MRG-UN.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
MRG-UN.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes