Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +11.1% with a 50% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -13.9% with only a 14% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +13.8% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -16.1% historically, with January alone posting a 17% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is -2.6% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -6.27% | 10.30% | -12.31% | 7.49% | 14.44% | -12.53% | 1.90% | 0.59% | -0.88% | -6.63% | ||
| 2025 | -2.55% | -9.21% | -11.41% | 4.56% | 14.85% | 1.19% | -1.89% | 24.64% | 2.70% | -4.53% | -0.79% | 3.69% |
| 2024 | -3.70% | 0.65% | -12.15% | -5.84% | 4.72% | -3.67% | -1.04% | 2.28% | -1.21% | -10.04% | -1.36% | -10.72% |
| 2023 | 14.30% | 8.62% | 4.61% | -2.88% | -19.79% | 17.19% | 11.47% | -7.52% | -8.05% | -8.63% | 4.81% | 20.12% |
| 2022 | -8.87% | -5.63% | -8.71% | -14.59% | 28.42% | -15.16% | 12.39% | 10.81% | -16.96% | 2.11% | 36.43% | -5.01% |
| 2021 | -8.75% | 9.73% | -17.20% | 8.80% | 2.40% | -4.02% | -3.14% | -4.58% | -6.48% | 2.13% | -14.27% | 17.26% |
| 2020 | -10.85% | -40.32% | 23.49% | 7.61% | 13.59% | -2.66% | 0.70% | -4.49% | 5.25% | 41.77% | 4.85% | |
| Avg | -2.64% | 0.52% | -13.93% | 3.01% | 7.52% | -0.49% | 2.43% | 3.85% | -5.05% | -2.29% | 11.10% | 5.03% |
MRE.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
MRE.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
MRE.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes
MRE.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data