Seasonality
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Seasonality
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Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.43% | 6.66% | 7.95% | 2.04% | -3.29% | 4.59% | 1.34% | -0.53% | -0.54% | 1.68% | ||
| 2025 | -1.01% | -0.86% | -1.08% | -2.58% | 15.05% | 0.42% | 3.39% | 5.79% | 0.46% | -2.32% | 5.08% | -0.84% |
| 2024 | 4.35% | -1.79% | 0.54% | -1.31% | 4.50% | -1.18% | 4.74% | 1.98% | 7.66% | -1.74% | 1.92% | -1.73% |
| 2023 | 9.01% | 4.05% | 1.01% | -3.74% | -2.68% | 2.17% | 0.44% | 3.68% | 4.93% | -8.33% | 2.76% | -0.91% |
| 2022 | 2.67% | 1.78% | 18.51% | -11.78% | 0.00% | -20.85% | 16.38% | -13.65% | -9.65% | -1.38% | 1.96% | -0.91% |
| 2021 | 0.74% | 5.06% | 20.47% | 9.41% | 3.30% | 0.37% | -5.90% | -0.87% | 22.35% | -4.29% | -1.38% | 0.43% |
| 2020 | -4.77% | -39.15% | -4.25% | 6.58% | 2.10% | -1.46% | -11.05% | -10.54% | 1.72% | 33.73% | 19.97% | |
| Avg | 3.70% | 1.45% | 1.18% | -1.74% | 3.35% | -1.77% | 2.71% | -2.09% | 2.09% | -2.73% | 7.35% | 2.67% |
MRD.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +7.3% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Oct shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Oct averages -2.7% with only a 17% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +7.3% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +6.3% historically, with January alone posting a 83% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is +14.0% vs the historical average for the same point.
MRD.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
MRD.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
MRD.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes