Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +4.1% with a 67% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -1.7% with only a 71% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +2.9% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -3.6% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is -4.0% vs the historical average for the same point.
MRC.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.72% | -2.54% | 0.04% | 4.92% | -2.06% | 5.61% | -9.99% | 2.05% | 0.12% | -1.48% | ||
| 2025 | -3.74% | 2.70% | 5.15% | -3.91% | -3.66% | 1.54% | 4.36% | -1.01% | -1.28% | 0.87% | -1.14% | 1.05% |
| 2024 | 5.77% | 0.13% | 5.57% | -6.66% | 0.49% | 0.29% | 0.42% | 0.24% | 10.51% | -5.24% | 2.25% | -2.64% |
| 2023 | 4.32% | -6.24% | -5.56% | -0.43% | -1.25% | 0.14% | 0.65% | -0.01% | -0.97% | 0.01% | 4.99% | -0.42% |
| 2022 | -3.85% | 1.27% | 3.86% | -8.44% | -4.54% | -9.40% | 1.43% | 3.56% | -4.61% | 2.68% | 2.10% | -1.51% |
| 2021 | -5.59% | -4.02% | 11.98% | 5.50% | 19.56% | -4.27% | -2.29% | -2.57% | -0.77% | 2.52% | -3.33% | 3.50% |
| 2020 | -2.78% | -32.90% | 11.29% | -15.65% | 2.71% | -3.25% | -2.53% | -12.50% | -8.19% | 19.70% | 0.34% | |
| Avg | -0.23% | -1.64% | -1.69% | 0.32% | -1.01% | -0.48% | -1.24% | -0.04% | -1.36% | -1.23% | 4.09% | 0.05% |
MRC.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
MRC.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
MRC.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes