Seasonality
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Seasonality
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Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.95% | 25.32% | -14.14% | 2.94% | 9.71% | -16.67% | -6.25% | 24.00% | 21.51% | -16.81% | ||
| 2025 | 10.26% | 11.63% | 31.25% | 7.94% | 8.82% | 6.76% | 1.27% | 8.75% | 40.23% | 5.74% | 21.71% | -3.18% |
| 2024 | -10.53% | -2.94% | 24.24% | 9.76% | 20.00% | -20.37% | -2.33% | -4.76% | 2.50% | 4.88% | 4.65% | -13.33% |
| 2023 | 17.65% | -10.00% | 50.00% | -7.41% | -16.00% | 0.00% | -9.52% | -7.89% | 2.86% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 5.56% |
| 2022 | -22.03% | -1.09% | 3.30% | 2.13% | -26.04% | -21.13% | -10.71% | 10.00% | -14.55% | -23.40% | -2.78% | -2.86% |
| 2021 | -4.76% | 70.00% | 5.88% | 52.78% | 23.64% | -20.59% | -5.56% | -11.76% | 62.22% | 31.51% | 21.88% | 0.85% |
| 2020 | -25.00% | 0.00% | 66.67% | 0.00% | 190.00% | 24.14% | -13.89% | -9.68% | -39.29% | 35.29% | -8.70% | |
| Avg | -0.91% | 9.70% | 14.36% | 19.26% | 2.88% | 16.86% | -1.28% | 0.63% | 15.01% | -3.43% | 13.46% | -3.61% |
Apr is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Apr averages +19.3% with a 86% win rate across 5 years of history.
Dec shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Dec averages -3.6% with only a 33% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +39.0% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +23.2% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is -14.9% vs the historical average for the same point.
MNO.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
MNO.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
MNO.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
MNO.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes