Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Aug is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Aug averages +7.8% with a 71% win rate across 5 years of history.
Jun shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Jun averages -8.0% with only a 14% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q1 (Jan–Feb–Mar) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q1 combine for a +9.9% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +9.9% historically, with January alone posting a 83% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is +12.3% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 18.33% | 2.35% | 14.50% | 2.05% | -5.99% | -15.72% | 4.66% | 15.47% | -8.33% | 2.39% | ||
| 2025 | -3.55% | 1.05% | 10.03% | -12.62% | 2.71% | -7.22% | 6.59% | 3.04% | 3.37% | -1.09% | -3.30% | 5.26% |
| 2024 | 1.61% | -17.39% | 14.73% | 3.81% | 6.53% | -6.51% | -3.28% | -12.71% | -13.47% | 2.29% | 10.06% | 0.00% |
| 2023 | 11.24% | 0.72% | 9.87% | -13.53% | 10.69% | -2.76% | 10.64% | 4.17% | -15.12% | -6.23% | -1.17% | -1.58% |
| 2022 | 16.20% | 39.42% | -21.62% | 17.86% | 1.14% | -22.85% | 15.05% | 8.44% | 0.97% | 30.47% | -13.17% | -14.14% |
| 2021 | 0.88% | 11.40% | -7.87% | 2.56% | 0.83% | -1.65% | 3.36% | 38.21% | 2.35% | 14.37% | -8.54% | -1.65% |
| 2020 | -9.49% | -30.65% | 25.58% | -1.85% | 0.94% | 3.74% | -1.80% | -11.93% | -6.25% | 21.11% | 3.67% | |
| Avg | 7.45% | 4.01% | -1.57% | 3.67% | 2.01% | -7.97% | 5.82% | 7.83% | -6.02% | 5.59% | 0.83% | -1.41% |
MER.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
MER.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
MER.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
MER.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes