Seasonality
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Seasonality
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Jul is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jul averages +5.7% with a 86% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -5.8% with only a 0% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +8.5% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +1.4% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is -18.2% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -4.62% | 7.56% | -6.43% | 3.37% | -9.19% | 3.12% | 4.36% | -4.62% | -3.46% | 8.18% | ||
| 2025 | 1.85% | -2.72% | -5.35% | -1.67% | 4.59% | -4.34% | -0.66% | 6.77% | -5.63% | 1.29% | -1.49% | -1.50% |
| 2024 | 4.12% | 12.99% | 9.41% | -9.46% | 0.58% | -3.13% | 17.66% | 1.82% | -3.73% | 9.02% | -3.68% | 0.68% |
| 2023 | 11.90% | 2.24% | -6.67% | 3.57% | 3.47% | -1.38% | 4.48% | -3.28% | -1.17% | 1.35% | 5.34% | 2.83% |
| 2022 | 5.67% | -0.79% | 13.50% | -16.30% | -5.11% | 6.08% | 6.67% | -5.98% | -12.29% | 6.18% | 7.92% | -2.85% |
| 2021 | -2.09% | 0.75% | 3.41% | 1.10% | 9.14% | 17.03% | 6.08% | 1.00% | -6.59% | 5.99% | 2.72% | 5.89% |
| 2020 | 10.23% | -48.05% | 28.84% | 17.54% | -1.10% | 1.25% | 14.45% | -7.96% | -10.17% | 9.17% | 12.16% | |
| Avg | 2.80% | 4.32% | -5.74% | 1.35% | 3.00% | 2.33% | 5.69% | 1.45% | -5.83% | 2.28% | 3.33% | 2.87% |
MEQ.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
MEQ.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
MEQ.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
MEQ.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes