Seasonality
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Seasonality
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Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 15.81% | 21.95% | -12.07% | -2.18% | 9.13% | -11.87% | -7.63% | 21.91% | -1.18% | -15.03% | ||
| 2025 | 2.44% | -2.26% | -2.43% | 8.73% | -7.34% | 9.65% | -0.79% | 10.13% | 20.25% | 6.10% | 5.59% | -1.07% |
| 2024 | -9.88% | -5.66% | 14.94% | 6.22% | 3.97% | -8.65% | 3.85% | 0.32% | -11.52% | 0.12% | 2.51% | -4.42% |
| 2023 | 4.85% | -3.17% | -0.47% | -1.69% | -12.63% | 0.11% | 4.05% | -8.52% | -4.94% | -11.25% | 5.04% | 19.46% |
| 2022 | 0.85% | 11.52% | 31.00% | -4.60% | -9.04% | -14.49% | 6.20% | -7.20% | -6.63% | -1.32% | 12.32% | 14.22% |
| 2021 | -9.23% | 0.72% | -3.98% | 3.41% | 51.72% | -19.07% | 0.35% | -7.21% | 5.89% | 5.44% | -3.48% | -3.95% |
| 2020 | -15.85% | -38.31% | 24.56% | -0.85% | 21.88% | 41.96% | 10.84% | 5.63% | -8.56% | -7.52% | 27.53% | |
| Avg | 0.81% | 1.04% | -1.62% | 4.92% | 4.99% | -3.21% | 6.86% | 2.90% | 1.07% | -1.58% | 2.41% | 8.63% |
Dec is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Dec averages +8.6% with a 50% win rate across 5 years of history.
Jun shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Jun averages -3.2% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q3 (Jul–Aug–Sep) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q3 combine for a +10.8% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +0.2% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is +5.7% vs the historical average for the same point.
MDI.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
MDI.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
MDI.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
MDI.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes