Seasonality
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Seasonality
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Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 44.26% | 2.91% | -10.90% | 17.88% | 48.00% | -4.68% | -27.58% | -5.68% | 5.30% | -8.33% | ||
| 2025 | -21.91% | 0.65% | 18.44% | -2.11% | 5.50% | 23.67% | 10.51% | 14.46% | -21.95% | -21.00% | -11.61% | 10.08% |
| 2024 | -3.04% | 31.24% | 0.34% | -3.33% | -17.16% | 15.96% | -3.29% | 19.98% | 9.65% | 22.55% | 26.34% | 9.74% |
| 2023 | 7.81% | 17.68% | -13.79% | -4.71% | 28.34% | -4.56% | 1.96% | 24.13% | 11.51% | -0.52% | 0.26% | 0.17% |
| 2022 | -1.05% | -1.28% | 11.21% | -14.34% | 5.77% | -14.65% | 5.64% | -11.63% | -2.68% | -7.72% | -2.84% | -1.54% |
| 2021 | -7.81% | 10.17% | -3.08% | 0.38% | 2.91% | -6.82% | -32.12% | -7.68% | ||||
| Avg | 5.21% | 10.24% | 1.06% | -1.32% | 10.44% | 4.32% | -2.64% | 6.94% | 0.79% | -2.70% | -4.00% | 2.16% |
May is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
May averages +10.4% with a 67% win rate across 5 years of history.
Nov shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Nov averages -4.0% with only a 40% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q1 (Jan–Feb–Mar) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q1 combine for a +16.5% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +16.5% historically, with January alone posting a 40% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is +22.4% vs the historical average for the same point.
MDA.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
MDA.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
MDA.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
MDA.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes