Seasonality
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Seasonality
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Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 23.89% | 38.89% | -6.88% | -15.22% | 24.81% | -3.70% | -1.67% | 22.70% | -2.42% | -20.59% | ||
| 2025 | 3.85% | 10.19% | 36.97% | 9.20% | 27.53% | -0.66% | -4.21% | 26.85% | 23.54% | 2.81% | 21.98% | 16.37% |
| 2024 | 1.41% | 11.11% | 56.25% | 1.60% | 14.17% | -8.97% | 34.09% | 0.00% | 7.34% | 30.53% | -10.08% | -6.73% |
| 2023 | 7.46% | -9.72% | 7.69% | 0.00% | -10.00% | -1.59% | -8.06% | -5.26% | 0.00% | 7.41% | 27.59% | -4.05% |
| 2022 | 7.03% | 5.11% | 30.56% | -13.83% | -13.58% | -20.00% | -3.57% | 9.26% | -10.17% | -5.66% | 32.00% | 1.52% |
| 2021 | 6.52% | -18.37% | -18.75% | 30.77% | 16.47% | -16.16% | -12.05% | -5.48% | -10.14% | 4.84% | 0.00% | -1.54% |
| 2020 | -7.61% | 8.24% | ||||||||||
| Avg | 8.36% | 6.20% | 17.64% | 2.09% | 9.90% | -8.51% | 0.75% | 8.01% | 1.36% | 7.98% | 10.65% | 2.30% |
Mar is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Mar averages +17.6% with a 67% win rate across 5 years of history.
Jun shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Jun averages -8.5% with only a 0% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q1 (Jan–Feb–Mar) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q1 combine for a +32.2% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +32.2% historically, with January alone posting a 100% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is +15.5% vs the historical average for the same point.
MAU.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
MAU.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
MAU.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
MAU.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes