Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.64% | -14.19% | -19.36% | -3.26% | -1.87% | -4.57% | -5.19% | 18.12% | -2.38% | -13.28% | ||
| 2025 | 0.00% | 1.32% | -2.61% | -7.47% | -4.76% | 56.52% | 37.50% | 5.66% | 10.04% | -5.21% | 0.73% | 1.27% |
| 2024 | -5.25% | 8.31% | 0.00% | 9.38% | 3.12% | -3.27% | 5.21% | -3.96% | 3.35% | 3.74% | 14.90% | 10.67% |
| 2023 | 12.11% | 3.88% | 0.53% | 8.75% | -8.54% | 11.73% | 0.00% | -2.39% | -2.20% | -7.25% | -6.74% | -0.87% |
| 2022 | -6.63% | 16.48% | -2.68% | 1.25% | -4.70% | -22.08% | 3.33% | -8.06% | 9.47% | -0.64% | -3.23% | 7.33% |
| 2021 | -4.62% | 53.23% | -9.47% | 26.74% | -17.43% | -11.11% | 3.75% | -3.61% | -7.50% | 13.51% | -11.43% | 1.34% |
| 2020 | -14.29% | -16.67% | 0.00% | 20.00% | 19.33% | 67.60% | -4.33% | 13.94% | 0.92% | -0.30% | -1.22% | |
| Avg | 0.54% | 7.82% | -7.18% | 5.06% | -2.03% | 6.65% | 16.03% | 0.20% | 3.53% | 0.84% | -1.01% | 3.09% |
Jul is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jul averages +16.0% with a 71% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -7.2% with only a 14% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q3 (Jul–Aug–Sep) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q3 combine for a +19.8% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +1.2% historically, with January alone posting a 33% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is -64.0% vs the historical average for the same point.
MARI.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
MARI.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
MARI.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
MARI.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes