Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +6.5% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -3.4% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +9.2% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +1.2% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 205 of the year, the current YTD return is -12.5% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.43% | 0.47% | 0.75% | 0.62% | -0.05% | 0.95% | 0.30% | 0.79% | 0.15% | 0.60% | ||
| 2025 | -1.71% | -4.36% | 1.83% | 2.09% | 11.84% | 3.32% | -1.06% | -1.01% | 8.16% | 2.40% | 2.37% | 18.22% |
| 2024 | -3.18% | -0.57% | 8.00% | -8.17% | -3.03% | 6.41% | 2.53% | -3.48% | 5.62% | -2.65% | 13.69% | -2.33% |
| 2023 | 10.74% | -3.58% | -6.44% | 1.26% | -5.09% | 9.69% | 20.18% | -7.50% | -16.34% | -16.09% | 1.77% | 7.81% |
| 2022 | 10.13% | -3.77% | -1.36% | -5.99% | -1.18% | 1.33% | 8.04% | -13.90% | -16.47% | 2.63% | 9.24% | -1.37% |
| 2021 | -0.96% | 12.82% | 15.96% | 6.27% | 2.61% | 1.01% | -2.95% | 0.21% | -4.47% | 3.66% | -11.93% | 10.65% |
| 2020 | -11.08% | -18.22% | 1.73% | -8.52% | 1.96% | -7.17% | 5.35% | -0.79% | -4.17% | 24.15% | -2.88% | |
| Avg | 2.58% | -1.44% | 0.07% | -0.31% | -0.49% | 3.52% | 2.84% | -2.79% | -3.45% | -2.37% | 6.55% | 5.02% |
LB.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
LB.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
LB.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
LB.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes