Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Aug is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Aug averages +13.8% with a 71% win rate across 5 years of history.
Dec shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Dec averages -8.0% with only a 33% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q3 (Jul–Aug–Sep) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q3 combine for a +27.2% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +10.7% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 205 of the year, the current YTD return is -12.5% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 19.32% | 20.57% | -15.61% | 48.60% | 3.69% | -18.14% | -28.82% | 13.17% | -17.14% | -25.29% | ||
| 2025 | -0.53% | -16.22% | -2.86% | -7.19% | -15.14% | 18.67% | 28.32% | 27.79% | -1.07% | 27.16% | 30.85% | -0.78% |
| 2024 | -28.62% | 12.25% | 8.97% | -3.15% | -12.04% | -29.79% | -4.36% | -14.87% | 24.79% | 9.26% | -1.03% | -21.09% |
| 2023 | 30.35% | -3.71% | -8.75% | -7.89% | 1.26% | -2.22% | -0.71% | -6.95% | -6.82% | -17.45% | -5.48% | 15.17% |
| 2022 | -9.59% | 8.74% | 33.07% | -32.78% | -4.35% | -16.27% | 25.45% | 15.68% | -3.67% | -6.48% | -1.06% | -23.46% |
| 2021 | 58.26% | -5.85% | -15.16% | -14.06% | 7.49% | -1.29% | -1.09% | 37.71% | 12.79% | 26.86% | 40.39% | -26.94% |
| 2020 | 11.27% | -32.55% | 25.74% | 20.90% | 23.46% | 17.86% | 24.12% | 47.85% | -15.13% | 13.93% | 9.15% | |
| Avg | 11.53% | 3.86% | -4.70% | 1.32% | 0.26% | -3.66% | 5.24% | 13.81% | 8.11% | 4.03% | 12.93% | -7.99% |
LAR.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
LAR.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
LAR.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes
LAR.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data