Seasonality
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Seasonality
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Apr is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Apr averages +10.1% with a 71% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -4.2% with only a 71% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +15.2% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +0.6% historically, with January alone posting a 83% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is +6.6% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.80% | 12.90% | 4.40% | -2.47% | 8.97% | 0.54% | 4.55% | 0.92% | -13.69% | 6.95% | ||
| 2025 | -6.19% | 2.89% | 6.72% | -4.34% | -2.24% | 7.79% | -2.33% | 1.72% | 6.80% | -11.31% | 9.03% | -1.36% |
| 2024 | 1.53% | 2.68% | 6.02% | 1.23% | 2.18% | 6.41% | 2.80% | 3.65% | 5.79% | 1.40% | 7.97% | -3.66% |
| 2023 | 3.10% | -0.26% | -1.18% | 7.74% | -4.96% | 2.39% | 8.05% | 1.12% | -2.98% | 1.13% | 5.95% | -4.85% |
| 2022 | 5.43% | -0.20% | 7.30% | 1.05% | 6.28% | -12.32% | 13.47% | -2.01% | -11.65% | 3.26% | 7.92% | -5.06% |
| 2021 | 6.84% | 3.34% | 6.52% | 8.29% | 8.08% | 10.77% | 0.78% | -8.55% | 5.43% | 0.02% | -11.07% | 2.26% |
| 2020 | -6.28% | -58.86% | 59.33% | 6.43% | -4.57% | -0.75% | 17.75% | -14.96% | -5.19% | 19.38% | 1.63% | |
| Avg | 2.58% | 2.15% | -4.15% | 10.12% | 3.53% | 1.57% | 3.79% | 2.09% | -3.61% | -1.78% | 6.53% | -1.84% |
KEY.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
KEY.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
KEY.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
KEY.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes