Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.69% | 11.28% | 7.95% | 7.26% | -9.75% | -3.53% | 14.06% | 6.21% | -2.55% | 13.36% | ||
| 2025 | -1.99% | -9.01% | 8.63% | -17.79% | 19.50% | 9.88% | 0.27% | -8.70% | 2.38% | -3.05% | 16.79% | -1.54% |
| 2024 | -6.12% | 8.94% | 3.42% | 3.31% | 0.80% | 1.11% | -5.02% | 3.14% | 0.32% | 4.31% | 3.06% | 4.31% |
| 2023 | -8.78% | 2.84% | -2.34% | 7.84% | 6.87% | 5.67% | 13.95% | 10.20% | 3.28% | 8.69% | -14.85% | -14.75% |
| 2022 | 14.94% | 3.79% | 17.22% | -1.63% | 7.24% | -13.92% | 12.42% | -8.58% | -17.17% | 13.05% | -7.64% | -7.90% |
| 2021 | -1.11% | 35.96% | 9.92% | 2.63% | 19.05% | 8.62% | -3.97% | -1.18% | 35.82% | 9.89% | -14.20% | 12.35% |
| 2020 | -15.79% | -65.63% | 45.45% | -17.50% | 6.06% | 22.14% | -2.92% | -13.86% | 13.99% | 15.95% | -4.76% | |
| Avg | -0.23% | 5.43% | -2.98% | 6.72% | 3.74% | 1.98% | 7.69% | -0.26% | 1.18% | 7.81% | -0.15% | -2.05% |
KEL.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
Oct is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Oct averages +7.8% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -3.0% with only a 71% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +12.5% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +2.2% historically, with January alone posting a 33% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is +22.4% vs the historical average for the same point.
KEL.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
KEL.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
KEL.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes