Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Aug is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Aug averages +14.2% with a 57% win rate across 5 years of history.
Jun shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Jun averages -5.7% with only a 14% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q3 (Jul–Aug–Sep) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q3 combine for a +25.5% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +5.5% historically, with January alone posting a 83% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 205 of the year, the current YTD return is -36.2% vs the historical average for the same point.
JAG.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.87% | 23.30% | -23.76% | -9.07% | 8.72% | -25.93% | 4.26% | 41.93% | -7.71% | -21.10% | ||
| 2025 | 12.72% | -2.33% | 16.33% | 6.16% | 20.65% | -9.09% | 7.94% | 32.97% | 16.60% | 1.76% | 24.18% | 0.56% |
| 2024 | 5.68% | -3.23% | 45.56% | 10.31% | -10.38% | -12.36% | 65.64% | 25.27% | 13.38% | -16.85% | -14.86% | -39.68% |
| 2023 | 4.81% | -8.48% | 3.86% | -9.67% | -5.35% | -2.17% | -31.11% | -2.58% | -20.53% | 1.67% | 50.00% | -3.83% |
| 2022 | -6.73% | 14.93% | -9.60% | -6.52% | -23.16% | -3.07% | 17.61% | -11.77% | 5.15% | -8.50% | -3.93% | 0.37% |
| 2021 | 0.48% | -3.46% | -20.61% | 8.98% | -7.31% | -15.62% | 3.74% | -17.24% | -12.75% | 8.31% | 2.00% | -0.92% |
| 2020 | -18.18% | 0.00% | 72.22% | 25.81% | 28.21% | 30.00% | 30.77% | -12.79% | -1.50% | -4.13% | 21.57% | |
| Avg | 3.47% | 0.36% | 1.68% | 10.35% | 1.28% | -5.72% | 14.01% | 14.19% | -2.66% | -2.52% | 8.88% | -3.65% |
JAG.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
JAG.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
JAG.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes