Seasonality
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Seasonality
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May is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
May averages +25.6% with a 57% win rate across 5 years of history.
Jun shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Jun averages -4.7% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q1 (Jan–Feb–Mar) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q1 combine for a +20.7% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +20.7% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is -1.6% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 39.53% | 35.41% | -32.64% | 0.00% | 16.77% | -23.67% | -13.94% | 38.87% | 5.54% | -24.59% | ||
| 2025 | 6.25% | 0.00% | 35.29% | -4.35% | 26.14% | 5.41% | 33.33% | 23.72% | 18.13% | 11.40% | 7.09% | -6.99% |
| 2024 | 1.30% | -14.10% | 34.33% | -7.78% | -2.41% | -16.05% | -10.29% | 13.11% | 7.25% | 16.22% | -25.58% | 0.00% |
| 2023 | 29.31% | -8.00% | 17.39% | -14.81% | -1.45% | -19.12% | 0.00% | -9.09% | -2.00% | 4.08% | 41.18% | 6.94% |
| 2022 | 0.00% | 35.87% | 0.00% | -6.40% | -23.08% | -25.56% | 20.90% | -17.28% | 5.97% | -16.90% | 0.00% | -1.69% |
| 2021 | -6.18% | -16.17% | -3.57% | -8.89% | 17.07% | -10.42% | -2.33% | -14.29% | -12.96% | 7.45% | -5.94% | -3.16% |
| 2020 | -12.68% | -8.06% | 10.53% | 146.03% | 56.77% | -5.76% | -17.47% | -8.99% | 14.53% | -8.63% | -1.11% | |
| Avg | 11.70% | 2.90% | 6.11% | -4.53% | 25.58% | -4.66% | 3.13% | 2.51% | 1.85% | 6.13% | 1.35% | -1.00% |
ITH.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
ITH.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
ITH.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
ITH.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes