Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Jan is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jan averages +14.5% with a 50% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -3.6% with only a 71% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +17.1% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +15.6% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 205 of the year, the current YTD return is -17.4% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 18.45% | 6.53% | 18.05% | -1.97% | -7.78% | -9.99% | 5.17% | 16.43% | -6.41% | 26.48% | ||
| 2025 | -1.49% | -3.91% | 0.96% | -27.12% | 26.21% | 4.61% | 19.29% | 8.10% | 10.96% | -3.83% | 7.41% | -2.52% |
| 2024 | -0.25% | 7.13% | 2.81% | 2.72% | -4.32% | -3.25% | 4.30% | -5.44% | -8.57% | -2.88% | -3.96% | -3.02% |
| 2023 | -6.80% | 0.89% | -4.06% | 4.25% | -11.65% | 1.46% | 9.94% | -2.06% | 5.92% | -6.70% | -8.79% | -4.51% |
| 2022 | 42.20% | 9.68% | 7.94% | 5.72% | 7.47% | -27.82% | 11.30% | 11.64% | -29.14% | 27.55% | -4.61% | -5.13% |
| 2021 | 34.78% | 32.26% | 24.39% | 3.92% | 41.51% | 64.00% | -4.07% | -11.02% | 46.67% | 23.38% | 3.16% | 11.22% |
| 2020 | -18.97% | -75.53% | 13.04% | 38.46% | 0.00% | -2.78% | 8.57% | -21.05% | 6.67% | 37.50% | 4.55% | |
| Avg | 14.48% | 4.80% | -3.64% | 0.08% | 12.84% | 4.14% | 6.16% | 3.75% | -0.23% | 7.36% | 5.12% | 0.10% |
IPO.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
IPO.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
IPO.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
IPO.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes