Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
III.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
Jul is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jul averages +11.8% with a 57% win rate across 5 years of history.
Jun shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Jun averages -2.8% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q3 (Jul–Aug–Sep) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q3 combine for a +15.8% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +3.7% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 205 of the year, the current YTD return is -55.1% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 18.80% | -13.13% | -24.71% | -13.13% | 1.63% | -9.77% | 16.32% | 29.86% | -9.41% | -20.31% | ||
| 2025 | 9.34% | 17.59% | 18.80% | 25.18% | 32.76% | 5.84% | -17.59% | 14.14% | 28.26% | 16.10% | 10.95% | 31.58% |
| 2024 | 7.34% | -7.26% | -0.92% | 23.26% | -10.57% | -8.02% | -4.59% | 1.92% | 4.25% | -2.26% | -0.93% | -14.95% |
| 2023 | 22.10% | -19.46% | 15.17% | -13.66% | 7.91% | -3.14% | 37.30% | -3.54% | -9.80% | -4.98% | 7.14% | -3.11% |
| 2022 | -0.63% | 22.54% | -2.59% | -1.60% | -16.22% | -6.45% | -4.48% | -6.14% | -6.54% | 0.00% | -13.58% | -13.81% |
| 2021 | -13.92% | 6.83% | -4.26% | 10.47% | -1.01% | -8.35% | 5.11% | -16.70% | -1.02% | 2.56% | -15.75% | -5.93% |
| 2020 | -16.58% | -16.15% | 30.37% | 2.84% | 10.50% | 50.50% | 9.97% | -7.25% | -1.30% | 13.20% | 48.69% | |
| Avg | 7.17% | -1.35% | -2.09% | 8.70% | 2.48% | -2.77% | 11.80% | 4.22% | -0.22% | 1.69% | 0.17% | 7.08% |
III.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
III.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
III.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes