Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +14.6% with a 100% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -9.5% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +9.9% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -6.6% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 205 of the year, the current YTD return is +71.4% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 18.81% | -2.06% | 1.91% | -3.74% | 12.18% | 19.07% | -5.67% | 15.60% | 1.69% | 1.45% | ||
| 2025 | 1.25% | 0.82% | -12.78% | -11.17% | -5.57% | 0.00% | -0.64% | 1.61% | -19.83% | -22.07% | 13.27% | -4.46% |
| 2024 | -11.41% | -2.45% | 4.29% | -17.44% | 1.55% | -6.88% | 9.75% | -7.89% | 21.56% | -5.47% | 6.31% | -17.70% |
| 2023 | 26.71% | -13.68% | -4.14% | -3.45% | -6.63% | 25.84% | -5.52% | -3.39% | -11.62% | -15.09% | 21.33% | 13.10% |
| 2022 | -6.49% | 1.93% | -9.95% | 5.32% | -8.03% | -22.98% | 21.90% | 2.18% | -25.16% | 0.08% | 4.13% | -16.67% |
| 2021 | 0.25% | 16.83% | 1.65% | 15.44% | 1.05% | 0.13% | -17.56% | 4.69% | 16.76% | -9.40% | 12.56% | 26.99% |
| 2020 | -14.85% | -47.53% | 31.15% | 14.74% | 21.44% | 35.93% | 9.97% | -12.98% | 0.87% | 30.05% | 21.77% | |
| Avg | 4.85% | -1.92% | -9.51% | 2.30% | 1.33% | 5.23% | 5.45% | 3.25% | -4.23% | -8.51% | 14.61% | 3.84% |
IFP.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
IFP.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
IFP.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes
IFP.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data