Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Feb is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Feb averages +4.8% with a 100% win rate across 5 years of history.
Jan shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Jan averages -2.4% with only a 33% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +7.2% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +1.3% historically, with January alone posting a 33% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is -18.4% vs the historical average for the same point.
IFC.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
IFC.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -13.24% | 6.23% | -3.73% | 3.83% | 3.49% | 8.65% | -5.96% | -2.54% | -7.84% | 7.61% | ||
| 2025 | -1.37% | 10.42% | 3.63% | 4.14% | 1.69% | 2.14% | -9.55% | -3.97% | -1.08% | -3.38% | 9.09% | 0.59% |
| 2024 | 3.13% | 7.34% | -1.97% | 2.83% | 0.78% | 0.53% | 10.04% | 1.09% | 2.88% | 2.39% | 0.29% | -1.40% |
| 2023 | -0.96% | 1.54% | -0.74% | 5.96% | -2.38% | 2.81% | -4.76% | -2.21% | 4.54% | -1.61% | 7.93% | -2.55% |
| 2022 | 4.75% | 5.55% | 2.16% | -2.71% | 1.69% | -0.09% | 4.98% | -0.18% | 3.26% | 5.89% | -2.78% | -2.66% |
| 2021 | -6.45% | 0.88% | 8.85% | 6.09% | -0.09% | 3.68% | 0.94% | 1.08% | -2.07% | -0.94% | -4.45% | 4.31% |
| 2020 | 1.48% | -15.83% | 8.91% | -0.78% | -1.07% | 13.18% | -4.47% | 2.66% | -3.48% | 5.57% | 4.31% | |
| Avg | -2.36% | 4.78% | -1.09% | 4.15% | 0.63% | 2.38% | 1.27% | -1.60% | 0.34% | -0.19% | 2.61% | 0.43% |
IFC.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
IFC.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes