Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Oct is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Oct averages +20.7% with a 67% win rate across 5 years of history.
Jul shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Jul averages -2.8% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +28.7% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +17.4% historically, with January alone posting a 83% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is -17.9% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 12.59% | 9.33% | -10.53% | 64.89% | 12.01% | 7.30% | -27.80% | -5.08% | 18.83% | -23.10% | ||
| 2025 | -18.42% | -18.14% | -10.71% | 20.63% | 7.88% | 26.96% | -1.19% | -4.53% | 4.59% | 73.34% | -18.96% | -7.90% |
| 2024 | 13.81% | 25.03% | 24.89% | -20.44% | -3.63% | 0.57% | 7.04% | 4.94% | 13.08% | -14.62% | 17.68% | -9.63% |
| 2023 | 21.77% | 8.16% | 44.20% | 4.36% | 6.34% | 16.52% | 19.10% | -7.11% | -5.74% | 38.88% | 15.57% | -0.12% |
| 2022 | 2.50% | -0.33% | 3.37% | 1.19% | 28.93% | -4.98% | -9.56% | 25.71% | -7.97% | 25.16% | 8.19% | -7.28% |
| 2021 | 8.62% | -2.28% | 12.35% | 10.69% | -13.09% | 19.91% | -10.04% | 17.96% | -10.44% | 5.56% | -1.75% | 7.85% |
| 2020 | -3.85% | -7.48% | -2.19% | 0.80% | 5.35% | 3.05% | -8.15% | -2.00% | -4.01% | 26.96% | 17.25% | |
| Avg | 6.81% | 2.56% | 8.01% | 11.30% | 5.61% | 10.23% | -2.77% | 3.39% | 1.48% | 20.72% | 7.95% | 0.03% |
HPS-A.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
HPS-A.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
HPS-A.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
HPS-A.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes