Seasonality
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Seasonality
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Jul is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jul averages +18.0% with a 71% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -8.0% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +36.7% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +21.2% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is -57.7% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.93% | -21.60% | -11.56% | 26.15% | 89.63% | -16.72% | -23.17% | -3.02% | 8.29% | -35.17% | ||
| 2025 | 3.65% | -28.40% | -31.15% | 10.95% | 6.01% | -0.40% | 20.73% | 36.03% | 38.86% | 30.12% | -35.48% | -24.84% |
| 2024 | -27.52% | 19.44% | -11.63% | -23.46% | -1.43% | 23.26% | 18.63% | -15.71% | 1.89% | 18.29% | 13.50% | -29.14% |
| 2023 | 134.87% | -15.28% | 14.95% | -1.12% | 0.45% | 38.60% | 16.29% | -30.53% | -15.52% | 1.43% | -1.88% | 42.93% |
| 2022 | -24.47% | 4.00% | 2.31% | -28.95% | -41.48% | -30.38% | 50.13% | 15.92% | -22.24% | -18.43% | -33.18% | -31.34% |
| 2021 | 0.84% | 100.00% | 1.87% | -3.67% | -36.15% | 17.22% | -8.19% | 23.08% | -15.50% | 29.29% | 10.76% | -31.61% |
| 2020 | 37.14% | -20.83% | 107.89% | -5.06% | -14.67% | 51.56% | -5.15% | -22.83% | 43.66% | 145.10% | 91.20% | |
| Avg | 15.55% | 13.61% | -8.01% | 12.54% | 1.71% | 2.41% | 18.00% | 2.94% | -3.86% | 17.39% | 16.47% | 2.87% |
HIVE.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
HIVE.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
HIVE.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
HIVE.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes