Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Jul is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jul averages +3.9% with a 71% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -2.7% with only a 71% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +6.4% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +1.3% historically, with January alone posting a 83% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is +28.8% vs the historical average for the same point.
GEI.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
GEI.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.73% | 9.32% | 2.80% | 0.24% | -4.37% | 2.52% | 11.70% | -2.80% | -0.96% | 10.41% | ||
| 2025 | 0.16% | -12.32% | 5.82% | -2.82% | 4.47% | 7.37% | 4.52% | 4.20% | 0.99% | -7.58% | 6.27% | 0.54% |
| 2024 | 6.61% | 4.61% | 4.56% | -2.08% | 0.89% | 3.86% | -2.97% | -1.42% | 1.73% | 4.01% | 2.21% | 5.42% |
| 2023 | 0.80% | -3.78% | -4.09% | 6.44% | -4.70% | -3.13% | 3.07% | -5.36% | -2.46% | 8.44% | -2.80% | 0.17% |
| 2022 | 9.10% | 1.14% | 2.58% | -2.20% | 9.53% | -9.66% | 10.40% | -5.81% | -9.89% | 5.83% | 4.99% | -1.62% |
| 2021 | -5.79% | 11.82% | 4.46% | 0.81% | 4.94% | 2.28% | -3.75% | -0.44% | 3.73% | 7.22% | -7.34% | -1.47% |
| 2020 | -3.54% | -35.15% | 22.03% | 7.41% | 0.85% | 4.40% | 7.66% | -7.74% | -9.08% | 6.32% | 0.21% | |
| Avg | 2.94% | 1.04% | -2.72% | 3.20% | 2.60% | 0.59% | 3.91% | -0.57% | -2.09% | 1.47% | 1.61% | 0.54% |
GEI.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
GEI.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes