Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +7.6% with a 50% win rate across 5 years of history.
Oct shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Oct averages -5.1% with only a 17% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +10.7% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -5.1% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 205 of the year, the current YTD return is -11.6% vs the historical average for the same point.
GBT.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.47% | 4.49% | -6.67% | 2.54% | 2.01% | -0.52% | -2.40% | 1.90% | 1.09% | -2.92% | ||
| 2025 | -2.34% | -2.09% | -9.23% | 2.17% | 12.68% | 9.46% | -4.06% | -6.71% | 0.55% | 1.01% | -0.62% | 0.99% |
| 2024 | 4.89% | 7.72% | 5.39% | -3.16% | -11.40% | 9.72% | -5.14% | 3.36% | -3.33% | -3.29% | 4.27% | 1.89% |
| 2023 | 3.29% | 1.23% | 2.36% | -5.79% | 14.81% | 4.42% | 0.31% | -5.36% | -14.42% | -6.69% | -1.07% | 5.54% |
| 2022 | -4.78% | -0.94% | 1.22% | 1.87% | -0.46% | -3.38% | -1.66% | 2.04% | -5.23% | -10.38% | -5.10% | 15.79% |
| 2021 | -12.34% | 8.10% | 1.45% | 23.83% | -6.71% | 9.00% | 6.87% | -4.22% | -3.95% | -8.84% | 13.97% | 4.64% |
| 2020 | -19.96% | -15.80% | -1.61% | 2.09% | 13.14% | 18.86% | 6.95% | -5.37% | -2.40% | 34.08% | 4.54% | |
| Avg | -1.80% | -0.21% | -3.04% | 2.83% | 1.86% | 5.98% | 1.83% | -0.29% | -4.38% | -5.10% | 7.59% | 5.57% |
GBT.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
GBT.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
GBT.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes