Seasonality
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Seasonality
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Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -4.97% | 7.84% | -30.30% | -0.87% | 3.51% | -18.64% | 1.04% | 31.96% | -16.41% | -23.36% | ||
| 2025 | 30.56% | -8.51% | 1.16% | 13.79% | 4.04% | 21.36% | 3.20% | -3.10% | 14.40% | -14.69% | 16.39% | 13.38% |
| 2024 | -17.31% | 0.00% | -4.65% | 4.88% | 0.00% | -6.98% | 60.00% | 28.13% | 46.34% | -20.83% | -14.74% | -11.11% |
| 2023 | -4.35% | -6.82% | 2.44% | 19.05% | 12.00% | -23.21% | 9.30% | -6.38% | -13.64% | -2.63% | 21.62% | 15.56% |
| 2022 | 48.72% | -3.45% | -10.71% | -16.00% | -21.43% | -6.06% | 61.29% | -18.00% | 9.76% | 15.56% | -11.54% | 0.00% |
| 2021 | -27.85% | 22.81% | 4.29% | -4.11% | 5.71% | -10.81% | -1.52% | -13.85% | -7.14% | -15.38% | -11.36% | 0.00% |
| 2020 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 60.00% | 525.00% | 166.00% | 27.82% | -7.65% | -36.94% | -19.19% | -5.00% | 3.95% | |
| Avg | 4.13% | 1.70% | -5.40% | 10.96% | 75.55% | 17.38% | 23.02% | 1.59% | -0.52% | -9.53% | -0.77% | 3.63% |
May is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
May averages +75.5% with a 71% win rate across 5 years of history.
Oct shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Oct averages -9.5% with only a 17% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +103.9% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +0.4% historically, with January alone posting a 33% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 205 of the year, the current YTD return is -63.5% vs the historical average for the same point.
FVL.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
FVL.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
FVL.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
FVL.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes