Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Oct is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Oct averages +6.3% with a 50% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -4.0% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +12.3% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +5.6% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is +9.0% vs the historical average for the same point.
FTT.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 14.82% | 8.04% | -6.39% | 15.57% | 5.00% | -3.79% | -7.27% | -1.78% | 19.92% | -11.48% | ||
| 2025 | -4.73% | 18.39% | -5.18% | -3.90% | 30.99% | 14.92% | 3.71% | -5.19% | 13.54% | 17.32% | -1.04% | -0.52% |
| 2024 | 1.54% | -7.89% | 11.89% | 8.49% | -5.15% | -1.47% | -1.35% | 1.79% | 10.97% | -8.45% | -5.31% | -0.29% |
| 2023 | 11.53% | -7.18% | -2.66% | 4.21% | 5.26% | 11.01% | 11.46% | -6.00% | -5.59% | -7.24% | -6.47% | 11.04% |
| 2022 | 11.17% | 4.69% | 2.06% | -3.99% | -6.30% | -19.42% | 3.36% | 1.93% | -14.21% | 19.32% | 18.48% | -1.20% |
| 2021 | -1.22% | 25.18% | -3.76% | 0.09% | -2.89% | 5.15% | -0.59% | 2.50% | -4.84% | 17.25% | -10.58% | -2.06% |
| 2020 | -12.35% | -23.97% | 17.02% | 5.15% | 0.82% | 3.19% | 5.30% | 2.26% | -0.49% | 31.92% | 2.00% | |
| Avg | 5.52% | 4.13% | -4.00% | 5.36% | 4.58% | 1.03% | 1.79% | -0.21% | 3.15% | 6.29% | 4.50% | 1.49% |
FTT.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
FTT.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
FTT.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes