Seasonality
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Seasonality
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Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 26.32% | 47.84% | -13.63% | 7.09% | 31.73% | -13.47% | 0.97% | -11.76% | 23.40% | 35.72% | ||
| 2025 | 13.17% | -7.03% | -3.00% | 20.97% | 8.11% | 18.70% | -0.78% | 3.05% | 0.00% | -7.54% | 3.94% | 1.76% |
| 2024 | 1.18% | 33.26% | 4.71% | -16.33% | 1.00% | 12.03% | 11.97% | -4.87% | -3.14% | 19.62% | 4.14% | -0.14% |
| 2023 | 7.66% | 15.81% | 1.02% | 11.49% | -3.03% | 5.00% | 10.12% | -7.57% | -7.31% | 9.15% | 29.77% | -5.35% |
| 2022 | -8.68% | 4.13% | 11.51% | -7.83% | -6.95% | -17.01% | 3.50% | 7.73% | -12.56% | 1.03% | -5.58% | 26.34% |
| 2021 | -0.49% | -4.41% | 9.23% | 2.35% | 36.70% | 4.70% | -6.73% | -6.53% | -3.31% | -2.28% | -8.56% | 12.77% |
| 2020 | -5.08% | -41.37% | 8.12% | -12.21% | -5.35% | -14.69% | 11.92% | -2.37% | -6.06% | 30.32% | 1.49% | |
| Avg | 6.53% | 12.07% | -4.50% | 3.69% | 7.91% | 0.66% | 0.62% | -1.15% | -0.76% | 2.32% | 9.00% | 6.15% |
Feb is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Feb averages +12.1% with a 57% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -4.5% with only a 57% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +17.5% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +14.1% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is +156.1% vs the historical average for the same point.
FTG.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
FTG.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
FTG.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
FTG.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes