Seasonality
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Seasonality
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Jul is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jul averages +9.4% with a 86% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -5.0% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q3 (Jul–Aug–Sep) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q3 combine for a +8.4% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -5.0% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is -8.9% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -1.17% | 1.89% | -9.76% | -5.95% | 1.54% | 9.35% | -2.08% | -2.33% | -5.30% | 10.27% | ||
| 2025 | 1.51% | -3.50% | -6.29% | 1.40% | -0.58% | -1.06% | 14.94% | 1.23% | -3.96% | -15.80% | -1.58% | -2.69% |
| 2024 | 4.83% | -0.75% | 0.56% | -9.83% | -1.04% | 4.22% | 15.62% | 0.91% | 1.86% | 4.33% | 5.94% | -4.53% |
| 2023 | 14.68% | -1.63% | 1.97% | 7.02% | -3.24% | 3.62% | 1.23% | -1.06% | -3.16% | -0.67% | 8.52% | 0.94% |
| 2022 | -18.47% | -10.98% | 0.35% | -11.42% | 1.12% | -3.44% | 9.72% | -4.10% | 0.26% | 3.58% | 2.33% | -4.70% |
| 2021 | 0.26% | 10.54% | -3.27% | 7.03% | -1.84% | 8.59% | 9.30% | 0.83% | -2.17% | 7.79% | -0.53% | 1.34% |
| 2020 | 2.28% | -18.34% | 10.90% | 6.35% | 7.03% | 17.15% | 1.88% | 7.80% | 1.67% | -0.86% | -1.52% | |
| Avg | 0.27% | -0.31% | -4.97% | -0.12% | 0.33% | 4.05% | 9.41% | -0.38% | -0.67% | 0.15% | 2.30% | -1.86% |
FSV.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
FSV.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
FSV.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
FSV.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes