Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
FF.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
Jun is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jun averages +10.4% with a 57% win rate across 5 years of history.
Feb shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Feb averages -7.7% with only a 0% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +24.3% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -6.7% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 205 of the year, the current YTD return is +17.1% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 28.30% | -5.88% | -18.75% | -17.31% | 15.12% | 25.25% | -4.84% | 49.15% | -10.23% | -26.58% | ||
| 2025 | 12.50% | -7.41% | 8.00% | 22.22% | -6.06% | 19.35% | -13.51% | 25.00% | 42.50% | 19.30% | 22.06% | 27.71% |
| 2024 | -14.81% | -13.04% | 20.00% | 33.33% | -12.50% | -10.71% | 8.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 7.41% | -10.34% | -7.69% |
| 2023 | 2.50% | -9.76% | -8.11% | 5.88% | 2.78% | -8.11% | -2.94% | -15.15% | 0.00% | -7.14% | 3.85% | 0.00% |
| 2022 | -6.67% | 0.00% | -1.79% | -7.27% | -4.71% | -13.58% | 19.05% | -12.00% | -6.82% | 0.00% | 0.00% | -2.44% |
| 2021 | -1.25% | -5.06% | -4.00% | -6.94% | 19.40% | 13.75% | -14.29% | -10.26% | -14.29% | 0.00% | 3.33% | -3.23% |
| 2020 | -12.77% | -12.20% | 25.00% | 28.89% | 46.55% | 16.47% | -2.02% | 0.00% | -11.34% | -9.30% | 2.56% | |
| Avg | 3.43% | -7.70% | -2.41% | 7.84% | 6.13% | 10.36% | 1.13% | 4.96% | 1.60% | 1.37% | 1.60% | 2.82% |
FF.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
FF.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
FF.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes