Seasonality
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Seasonality
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Dec is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Dec averages +12.2% with a 67% win rate across 5 years of history.
Aug shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Aug averages -5.1% with only a 0% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q1 (Jan–Feb–Mar) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q1 combine for a +19.2% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +19.2% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 205 of the year, the current YTD return is +79.2% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 56.49% | 21.28% | 18.42% | 8.81% | -1.43% | -8.18% | 5.05% | -4.25% | -1.99% | -2.15% | ||
| 2025 | -4.99% | -12.61% | -5.88% | -25.41% | 16.67% | 13.94% | -3.28% | -4.25% | -6.24% | -1.30% | 16.64% | -7.21% |
| 2024 | 1.00% | -2.11% | 4.95% | 15.39% | -6.11% | -8.53% | -4.11% | -2.19% | 3.55% | -3.13% | 7.39% | 6.14% |
| 2023 | -1.06% | 1.32% | -5.20% | 9.95% | -16.69% | 3.09% | -2.72% | -3.08% | 3.56% | 9.40% | -27.72% | -6.24% |
| 2022 | 3.71% | 22.98% | 10.95% | -4.55% | -0.22% | -25.00% | 21.26% | -11.63% | -9.74% | 13.89% | -6.05% | 14.57% |
| 2021 | 15.89% | 69.89% | 1.42% | -1.40% | 0.16% | 21.01% | -0.13% | -9.15% | 9.06% | 16.23% | -23.04% | 51.03% |
| 2020 | -19.34% | -54.55% | 35.29% | -21.03% | -3.68% | -18.82% | -1.09% | -21.98% | 0.94% | 29.77% | 15.05% | |
| Avg | 11.84% | 11.63% | -4.27% | 5.44% | -4.09% | -1.05% | -0.40% | -5.09% | -3.39% | 6.00% | -0.50% | 12.23% |
FEC.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
FEC.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
FEC.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
FEC.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes