Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Jul is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jul averages +52.1% with a 71% win rate across 5 years of history.
Aug shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Aug averages -6.8% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q3 (Jul–Aug–Sep) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q3 combine for a +61.4% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +34.0% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 205 of the year, the current YTD return is +17.9% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 16.85% | 64.89% | -20.15% | 11.43% | 31.20% | -2.44% | -8.35% | 1.46% | -1.44% | -23.50% | ||
| 2025 | -2.70% | 9.72% | 3.80% | 8.54% | -13.48% | 18.18% | 21.98% | 24.32% | 30.43% | 25.00% | -12.00% | 37.88% |
| 2024 | -9.52% | -10.53% | 15.69% | 27.12% | 9.33% | -1.22% | 2.47% | -10.84% | 12.16% | 8.43% | -7.78% | -10.84% |
| 2023 | 42.59% | 14.29% | -4.55% | 21.43% | -27.45% | 2.70% | 14.47% | -16.09% | -4.11% | -7.14% | -15.38% | 14.55% |
| 2022 | 5.26% | 10.00% | -2.27% | 4.65% | -5.56% | -29.41% | -28.33% | -4.65% | -7.32% | 18.42% | 15.56% | 3.85% |
| 2021 | 52.08% | 78.08% | -10.77% | -5.17% | 10.91% | -34.43% | 22.50% | -21.43% | 68.83% | 26.15% | -17.07% | 11.76% |
| 2020 | -20.00% | -12.50% | 28.57% | -11.11% | 25.00% | 340.00% | -20.45% | 14.29% | -12.50% | 45.71% | -5.88% | |
| Avg | 17.43% | 20.92% | -4.39% | 13.79% | -0.88% | -3.09% | 52.11% | -6.81% | 16.12% | 9.73% | 1.51% | 8.55% |
FDY.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
FDY.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
FDY.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
FDY.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes