Seasonality
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Seasonality
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Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.40% | 2.89% | -3.50% | 5.25% | -1.72% | 1.31% | -3.00% | 0.41% | -1.30% | -6.74% | ||
| 2025 | -0.28% | 2.09% | -0.43% | 0.40% | 3.44% | 1.72% | -2.62% | 1.83% | 2.48% | -3.77% | 0.32% | 1.73% |
| 2024 | 6.06% | 2.17% | -0.45% | -5.34% | -2.33% | 5.16% | 8.79% | -3.24% | 2.98% | -1.76% | 5.20% | 2.23% |
| 2023 | 11.11% | -1.65% | -1.99% | -0.20% | -3.89% | -3.03% | 3.59% | 3.03% | -7.28% | -2.65% | 7.32% | 8.00% |
| 2022 | 0.84% | -0.98% | 0.90% | -5.77% | -2.78% | -9.97% | 7.38% | 0.48% | -5.39% | 1.88% | 0.75% | -7.59% |
| 2021 | 3.35% | 4.95% | 3.51% | 4.05% | 2.95% | -0.55% | 4.47% | -1.52% | -1.56% | 0.12% | -4.74% | 4.18% |
| 2020 | -9.52% | -25.03% | 9.88% | 4.50% | -0.96% | 3.72% | 6.27% | -5.50% | 2.93% | 4.89% | 4.53% | |
| Avg | 4.08% | -0.01% | -3.86% | 1.18% | 0.02% | -0.90% | 3.19% | 1.04% | -2.22% | -0.54% | 2.29% | 2.18% |
FC.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
Jan is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jan averages +4.1% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -3.9% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +3.9% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +0.2% historically, with January alone posting a 83% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 205 of the year, the current YTD return is -11.2% vs the historical average for the same point.
FC.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
FC.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
FC.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes