Seasonality
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Seasonality
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Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.48% | 12.31% | 0.50% | -0.68% | 2.88% | 16.04% | -15.03% | -3.74% | -19.71% | 9.02% | ||
| 2025 | 3.17% | -9.85% | -10.62% | 6.61% | 8.93% | 3.77% | -1.24% | 0.50% | 0.74% | 6.83% | 5.69% | 11.32% |
| 2024 | 2.80% | -2.58% | 7.63% | -5.94% | 5.60% | -15.76% | 5.69% | 3.49% | -10.13% | 0.34% | 2.62% | 5.44% |
| 2023 | -2.27% | -1.76% | -8.31% | 7.33% | 5.06% | 11.96% | -1.38% | -5.75% | -0.69% | 0.40% | -2.39% | 15.26% |
| 2022 | -1.52% | 3.09% | 15.51% | -7.68% | -1.28% | -6.05% | 13.05% | 1.72% | -15.91% | -3.75% | 3.72% | 5.76% |
| 2021 | -3.18% | 10.31% | 4.22% | 6.05% | -0.13% | -5.42% | -0.90% | -7.43% | 18.13% | -1.25% | -8.19% | 2.47% |
| 2020 | -4.62% | -19.43% | 15.20% | 0.13% | -25.70% | 11.93% | -4.65% | -3.39% | 3.25% | 8.75% | 4.63% | |
| Avg | 0.58% | 0.99% | -1.50% | 2.99% | 3.03% | -3.02% | 1.73% | -2.27% | -4.42% | 0.97% | 1.70% | 7.48% |
Dec is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Dec averages +7.5% with a 100% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -4.4% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +10.2% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +0.1% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is -5.3% vs the historical average for the same point.
ET.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
ET.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
ET.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
ET.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes