Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Jan is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jan averages +16.2% with a 100% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -7.1% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +16.1% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +9.9% historically, with January alone posting a 100% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is +34.4% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 24.02% | 14.92% | 0.28% | 5.51% | 9.40% | -20.76% | 5.12% | 6.02% | -8.11% | 23.53% | ||
| 2025 | 6.04% | -12.66% | -15.58% | -22.75% | 10.56% | 13.07% | 0.44% | -1.77% | 10.81% | 4.47% | 3.50% | -4.51% |
| 2024 | 7.37% | -10.30% | 23.92% | -1.54% | -7.84% | -2.98% | 12.72% | -1.56% | 4.74% | 5.66% | 5.36% | 1.02% |
| 2023 | 13.78% | -14.69% | -8.16% | -12.83% | -21.13% | -9.57% | 32.28% | 23.20% | 5.84% | -22.09% | -18.11% | 4.33% |
| 2022 | 32.74% | 24.66% | 24.10% | 17.97% | 17.44% | -29.50% | 2.37% | -9.86% | -27.33% | 54.42% | 12.61% | -13.23% |
| 2021 | 13.19% | 14.56% | -5.08% | 0.89% | 15.93% | 70.99% | -19.20% | -6.63% | 11.24% | 8.51% | -23.04% | 7.01% |
| 2020 | -11.02% | -69.05% | 19.23% | 16.13% | 44.44% | -35.58% | 5.97% | -18.31% | -13.79% | 74.00% | 4.60% | |
| Avg | 16.19% | 0.78% | -7.08% | 0.93% | 5.78% | 9.38% | -0.26% | 2.20% | -3.02% | 6.20% | 9.05% | -0.13% |
ESI.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
ESI.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
ESI.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
ESI.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes