Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Apr is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Apr averages +10.9% with a 71% win rate across 5 years of history.
Oct shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Oct averages -5.7% with only a 50% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +15.8% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -0.1% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is -5.4% vs the historical average for the same point.
ERO.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 17.64% | 2.15% | -20.55% | -5.29% | 19.65% | -9.85% | -0.61% | 37.01% | 1.38% | -16.37% | ||
| 2025 | 0.41% | -12.23% | 2.05% | -1.20% | 12.54% | 18.68% | -18.48% | 5.17% | 42.95% | 6.24% | 17.60% | 10.25% |
| 2024 | 0.48% | 9.83% | 12.98% | 7.47% | 3.38% | 0.76% | -7.66% | 2.63% | 8.66% | -15.08% | -16.35% | -9.40% |
| 2023 | 17.22% | -2.06% | 11.73% | 11.59% | -15.78% | 19.27% | 18.28% | -11.83% | -16.21% | -19.64% | -11.16% | 25.30% |
| 2022 | -17.98% | 14.59% | 0.94% | 0.87% | -15.05% | -30.72% | 16.56% | -1.66% | 22.55% | 1.57% | 9.80% | 9.45% |
| 2021 | -8.57% | 20.25% | -3.65% | 12.21% | 15.45% | -7.17% | -3.46% | -4.82% | -6.03% | 2.81% | -10.44% | -6.67% |
| 2020 | -20.85% | -26.55% | 50.61% | 0.69% | 22.71% | -18.05% | 23.39% | -2.41% | -10.10% | 27.68% | -8.35% | |
| Avg | 1.53% | 1.67% | -3.29% | 10.89% | 2.98% | 1.95% | -1.92% | 7.13% | 7.27% | -5.70% | 2.86% | 3.43% |
ERO.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
ERO.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes
ERO.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data